Assistant clinical professor of electrical engineering at Mississippi State University is David Wallace.
The May 2024 storm, which was classified as a G5 on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Geomagnetic Storm Scale of 1 to 5, sufficiently disrupted GPS communications to render tractor guidance invalid, a process that necessitates centimeter-level precision.
A substantial bubble of plasma, a superheated gas, is ejected from the sun’s surface and collides with the Earth, causing geomagnetic disturbances. This sphere is referred to as a coronal mass ejection. A cloud of electrically charged particles, specifically protons and electrons, is generated by a coronal mass ejection. These particles interact with the magnetic field that envelops the Earth upon their arrival at the planet. The aurora borealis and other natural phenomena exhibit unique characteristics as a consequence of the distortion and weakening of the magnetic field that this interaction induces.
GPS communications were sufficiently disrupted by the May 2024 storm, which was designated as G5 on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s 1-to-5 Geomagnetic Storms scale. This resulted in the invalidation of tractor guidance, which requires centimeter-based precision. The repercussions of cataclysmic cyclones would be considerably more severe. I am an electrical engineer who specializes in the field of electricity infrastructure. My research is concentrated on the potential for geomagnetic storms to lead to power and internet disruptions, as well as the strategies to reduce this risk.
Severe geomagnetic anomalies
Solar cyclones of higher intensity have occurred, and one of the earliest electronic technologies was severely disrupted. On September 1 and 2, 1859, the global telegraph systems suffered a catastrophic failure. The telegraph operators documented the ability to operate apparatus even when the batteries were detachable, combustible telegraph paper, and electrical shocks. During the evenings, the aurora borealis was visible as far south as Colombia. However, these lights are generally only visible at higher latitudes, particularly in northern Canada, Scandinavia, and Siberia.
The Carrington Event, which occurred on that day, is now recognized as the most intense geomagnetic disturbance to have ever been recorded. It was considerably more severe than the tempest that transpired in May 2024.
Since the early 19th century, scientific data from Antarctic ice core samples has revealed the existence of geomagnetic storms of an even greater magnitude, known as the Miyake Event, which took place around 774 A.D. The solar outburst led to the most substantial and rapid increase in carbon-14 that has ever been observed. Carbon-14, a radioactive carbon isotope, is generated in the Earth’s upper atmosphere as a result of the discharge of elevated levels of cosmic radiation from geomagnetic disturbances.
A geomagnetic disturbance that was 60% lesser than the Miyake Event occurred around A.D. 993. Ice core samples indicate that large-scale geomagnetic storms of comparable intensity to the Miyake and Carrington events occur about once every 500 years.
Scientists estimated the intensity of the Carrington Event by analyzing the fluctuations in the Earth’s magnetic field that were being registered at the time. Magnetic fluctuations were not quantifiable during the Miyake Event. In contrast, scientists quantified the increase in carbon-14 content in tree rings during that time. The Miyake Event resulted in a 12% increase in the concentration of carbon-14. On the other hand, the carbon-14 content increased by less than 1% during the Carrington Event, indicating that the Miyake Event likely outperformed the G5 Carrington Event.
Undermining authority
At present, the consequences of a geomagnetic storm of the same magnitude as the Carrington Event would be extensive and would surpass the scope of telegraph wires. Any disruption could potentially result in financial losses in the trillions of dollars and imperil the lives of those who rely on the systems, given the growing reliance on electricity and emerging technologies. The tempest would have an impact on the vast majority of electrical systems that are used on a daily basis.
Irinduced currents are produced by geomagnetic disturbances and propagate through the electrical grid. Due to the earth’s magnets, grid-connected electrical components, including transformers, relays, and sensors, are exposed to voltages that may surpass one hundred amperes. A significant number of households are provided with electricity at a rate of one hundred amperes. The components may sustain internal damage as a result of currents of this magnitude, which could result in widespread power outages.
The Carrington Event was three times more intense than the geomagnetic disturbance that transpired in March 1989 in Québec, Canada. As a consequence of the cyclone, the Hydro-Quebec electrical grid collapsed. The triggering of the grid’s circuit breakers was initiated by the high magnetically induced currents that caused damage to a transformer in New Jersey throughout the storm. Five million individuals were impacted by a nine-hour power outage as a consequence of this incident.
Fragmentation of relationships
Worldwide communications would be disrupted in addition to electrical malfunctions. The potential disruption of Internet service providers could result in the inability of disparate systems to exchange data. Disruptions would be experienced by high-frequency communication systems, including ship-to-shore, shortwave, and ground-to-air radio. The circuit boards of satellites in Earth-orbiting orbit may be damaged if they are consumed by induced currents that are the result of the geomagnetic storm. The consequence of this would be the disruption of satellite-based telephone, internet, radio, and television services.
Furthermore, the expansion of the atmosphere is a consequence of the heightened solar activity that is a result of geomagnetic disturbances that impact the Earth. The density of the atmosphere in which satellites are in orbit is impacted by this expansion. The drag produced by a higher-density atmosphere reduces the velocity of a satellite. Furthermore, it is capable of returning to Earth if it is not accelerated to a higher orbit.
Navigation systems are an additional domain that has the potential to disrupt daily life. In order to facilitate navigation and monitoring, GPS is integrated into nearly all modes of conveyance, such as aircraft and automobiles. Tracking bands, smart watches, and cell phones are all examples of portable devices that depend on GPS signals transmitted by satellites. The coordination of the military’s refuse systems is significantly reliant on GPS. Potential disruptions to additional military detection systems, including submarine detection systems and over-the-horizon radar, may have a detrimental effect on the national defense.
Geomagnetically induced currents in the submarine and terrestrial cables that serve as the backbone of the internet, as well as the data centers that store and process a wide range of data, including scientific data sets, artificial intelligence tools, and email, could be generated by a geomagnetic storm of the magnitude of the Carrington Event in the global internet context. This has the capacity to impede the servers’ ability to establish connections with one another and disrupt the entire network.
Time is the sole determining factor.
The Earth is on the cusp of an additional significant geomagnetic storm. Storms of the Carrington type would cause substantial disruptions to the electrical and communication infrastructures worldwide, potentially resulting in failures that could endure for weeks. The global repercussions would be calamitous if the cyclone reaches the magnitude of the Miyake Event, and the potential power outages could last for months, if not longer. Despite receiving space weather warnings from NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, the international community would only be provided with a few minutes to a few hours’ notice.
In my opinion, it is essential to continue conducting research on methods to protect electrical systems from the effects of geomagnetic disturbances. This can be accomplished by implementing devices that can protect vulnerable equipment, such as transformers, and by devising strategies for modifying grid loads in anticipation of solar storms. In conclusion, the forthcoming Carrington event requires urgent action to mitigate the disruptions.
This is an enhanced version of an article that was initially published on The Conversation on March 18, 2022. It has been republished in accordance with the Creative Commons license. The revision was implemented to incorporate details regarding the solar storm that transpired in May 2024.
