We are aware that vaccines have been a miraculous development in the realm of public health. Vaccines have prevented 154 million fatalities from 14 distinct diseases over the past 50 years, according to recent research conducted by the World Health Organization. The preponderance of these individuals have been children aged five and under, with approximately two-thirds being infants.
The Expanded Programme on Immunization was initiated by the World Health Assembly in 1974 with the objective of immunizing all children against diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis (whooping cough), measles, polio, tuberculosis, and smallpox by 1990. Subsequently, the program was expanded to include a variety of additional diseases.
According to modeling conducted fifty years after the inception of this program, a child under the age of ten has an approximately 40% greater likelihood of surviving until their next birthday in comparison to a world without vaccines. Additionally, these advantageous outcomes persist throughout adulthood. A 50-year-old has a 16% increased likelihood of celebrating their next birthday as a result of vaccinations.
The research’s accomplishments
The researchers created mathematical and statistical models that incorporated population estimates and vaccine coverage data from 194 countries between 1974 and 2024. Although smallpox was eradicated in 1980, it was not included in the list of diseases.
Of the 14 vaccines included in the analysis, 11 are included in the Expanded Programme on Immunization. Certain countries implemented additional vaccines, such as those for Japanese encephalitis, meningitis A, and yellow fever, as a result of their substantial impact on the disease burden in particular contexts.
The models were implemented to simulate the progression of diseases from 1974 to the present, in consideration of the introduction of immunizations, for each country and age group. Throughout this period, they incorporated data regarding the gradual expansion of vaccine coverage.
Children are the primary beneficiaries of vaccines.
Since 1974, the mortality rate of neonates before their first birthday has decreased by more than 50%. The researchers concluded that vaccines are responsible for roughly 40% of this decline.
The global intensities of endeavor to reduce the prevalence of diseases such as measles, polio, and whooping cough have disproportionately affected children born in the 1980s.
Sixty percent of the 154 million lives that were saved could have been lost to measles. This is due to its tendency to spread rapidly. Measles can be transmitted to 12–18 individuals by a single infected individual.
Furthermore, the investigation identified regional disparities. As an illustration, vaccination programs have significantly increased the likelihood of children surviving longer in low- and middle-income countries and settings with weaker health systems, such as the eastern Mediterranean and African regions. The significance of vaccines in the promotion of health equity is underscored by these findings.
The efficacy of vaccines cannot be predicted.
Communities can be devastated and health systems can be overwhelmed by epidemics that result from low or declining vaccine coverage.
It is important to note that the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a general decrease in the coverage of the measles vaccine. In 2019, 86% of children received their first vaccination, while this figure fell to 83% in 2022. This is a cause for concern, as herd immunity against measles necessitates an extremely high level of vaccination coverage (over 95%).
The coverage of childhood vaccines, such as rubella, measles, and mumps, in Australia has decreased in comparison to the pre-pandemic period.
This study serves as a reminder of the necessity of continuing vaccinations, not only against measles but also against all other diseases for which there are safe and effective vaccines.
The results of this investigation do not offer a thorough examination of the consequences of vaccines. The authors neglected to include information regarding specific vaccines, such as those that protect against COVID-19 and human papillomavirus (HPV). As with any modeling analysis, there are uncertainties due to the fact that the data was not available for all time periods and nations.
However, the results exhibit the long-term effectiveness of global immunization programs. In order to maintain the preservation of lives, it is imperative that we continue to allocate resources to vaccination initiatives on a local, regional, and global scale.
